Bayesian hierarchical model for comparison of different nonlinear function and genetic parameter estimates of meat quails

Abstract

This study aimed to compare different nonlinear functions to describe the growth curve of European quails and to estimate growth curve parameters, (co)variance components, and genetic and systematic effects that affected the curve using a hierarchical Bayesian model that allows joint estimation. Three different models were fitted in the first stage (Gompertz, Logístic, and von Bertalanffy). The analyzed data set had 45,965 records of 6,838 meat quails selected for higher body weight at 42 d of age for 15 successive generations, weighed at birth, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, and 42 d of age. Comparisons of the overall goodness of fit were based on deviance information criterion (DIC) and mean square error. Gelfand's check function compared the models at different points of the growth curve. In the second stage, the systematic (sex and generation) and genetic effects were considered in an animal model. Random samples of the a posteriori distributions were obtained by Metropolis–Hastings and Gibbs sampling algorithms. The Gompertz function presented lower DIC and better adjustment at different ages and was defined as the best fit. The heritabilities of A, b, and k parameters were moderate (0.32, 0.29, and 0.18, respectively). The genetics correlations were A and b (0.25), A and k (–0.50), and b and k (0.03). The samples of the posterior marginal distributions for the differences between the estimates of the parameters of the Gompertz model, for generation, A, b, k, age at inflexion point (APOI), and weight at inflexion point (WPOI) showed differences in relation to sex, the females are heavier, A, WPOI, and APOI for females were also higher. In conclusion, 15 generations of selection and changes in the environmental conditions altered the growth curve, leaving the quails heavier and with greater WPOI and APOI, decreased growth rate, and increased the birth weight. The curve parameters could be used in a selection index, despite the difficulty in selecting quails with higher rate of growth and adult body weight.