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dc.contributor.authorChen, Guan-Jhou
dc.contributor.authorPalmer, John R.B.
dc.contributor.authorBartumeus, Frederic
dc.contributor.authorAlba-Casals, Ana
dc.contributor.otherProducció Animalca
dc.date.accessioned2023-02-08T17:41:37Z
dc.date.available2023-02-08T17:41:37Z
dc.date.issued2022-11-17
dc.identifier.citationChen, Guan-Jhou, John R.B. Palmer, Frederic Bartumeus, and Ana Alba-Casals. 2022. "Modeling The Impact Of Surveillance Activities Combined With Physical Distancing Interventions On COVID-19 Epidemics At A Local Level". Infectious Disease Modelling 7 (4): 811-822. doi:10.1016/j.idm.2022.11.001.ca
dc.identifier.issn2468-0427ca
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12327/2046
dc.description.abstractPhysical distancing and contact tracing are two key components in controlling the COVID- 19 epidemics. Understanding their interaction at local level is important for policymakers. We propose a flexible modeling framework to assess the effect of combining contact tracing with different physical distancing strategies. Using scenario tree analyses, we compute the probability of COVID-19 detection using passive surveillance, with and without contact tracing, in metropolitan Barcelona. The estimates of detection probability and the frequency of daily social contacts are fitted into an age-structured susceptible- exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental model to simulate the epidemics consid- ering different physical distancing scenarios over a period of 26 weeks. With the original Wuhan strain, the probability of detecting an infected individual without implementing physical distancing would have been 0.465, 0.515, 0.617, and 0.665 in designated age groups (0e14, 15e49, 50e64, and >65), respectively. As the physical distancing measures were reinforced and the disease circulation decreased, the interaction between the two interventions resulted in a reduction of the detection probabilities; however, despite this reduction, active contact tracing and isolation remained an effective supplement to physical distancing. If we relied solely on passive surveillance for diagnosing COVID-19, the model required a minimal 50% (95% credible interval, 39e69%) reduction of daily social contacts to keep the infected population under 5%, as compared to the 36% (95% credible interval, 22e56%) reduction with contact tracing systems. The simulation with the B.1.1.7 and B.1.167.2 strains shows similar results. Our simulations showed that a functioning contact tracing program would reduce the need for physical distancing and mitigate the COVID-19 epidemics.ca
dc.format.extent12ca
dc.language.isoengca
dc.publisherKeAi Communicationsca
dc.relation.ispartofInfectious Disease Modellingca
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalca
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/*
dc.titleModeling the impact of surveillance activities combined with physical distancing interventions on COVID-19 epidemics at a local levelca
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleca
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionca
dc.rights.accessLevelinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.embargo.termscapca
dc.relation.projectIDEC/H2020/874735/EU/Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory/VEOca
dc.relation.projectIDEC/European Research Council/853271/EU/Human-Mosquito Interaction Project: Host-vector networks, mobility, and the socio-ecological context of mosquito-borne disease/H-MIPca
dc.subject.udc619ca
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.11.001ca
dc.contributor.groupSanitat Animalca


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Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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