Climate service driven adaptation may alleviate the impacts of climate change in agriculture
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Publication date
2022-11-12ISSN
2399-3642
Abstract
Building a resilient and sustainable agricultural sector requires the development and implementation of tailored climate change adaptation strategies. By focusing on durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) in the Euro-Mediterranean region, we estimate the benefits of adapting through seasonal cultivar-selection supported by an idealised agro-climate service based on seasonal climate forecasts. The cost of inaction in terms of mean yield losses, in 2021–2040, ranges from −7.8% to −5.8% associated with a 7% to 12% increase in interannual variability. Supporting cultivar choices at local scale may alleviate these impacts and even turn them into gains, from 0.4% to 5.3%, as soon as the performance of the agro-climate service increases. However, adaptation advantages on mean yield may come with doubling the estimated increase in the interannual yield variability.
Document Type
Article
Document version
Published version
Language
English
Subject (CDU)
631 - Agriculture in general
633 - Field crops and their production
Pages
6
Publisher
Nature
Is part of
Communications Biology
Citation
Toreti, Andrea, Simona Bassu, Senthold Asseng, Matteo Zampieri, Andrej Ceglar, and Conxita Royo. 2022. "Climate Service Driven Adaptation May Alleviate The Impacts Of Climate Change In Agriculture". Communications Biology 5 (1). doi:10.1038/s42003-022-04189-9.
Grant agreement number
EC/H2020/776467/EU/Turning climate-related information into added value for traditional MEDiterranean Grape, OLive and Durum wheat foods systems/MED-GOLD
EC/H2020/817566/EU/Modelling INdividual Decisions to Support The European Policies related to agriculture/MIND STEP
Program
Cultius Extensius Sostenibles
This item appears in the following Collection(s)
- ARTICLES CIENTÍFICS [2555]
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/