To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?
del Prado, A.
Özkan Gülzari, Ş.
van Middelkoop, J.
Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and eﬃcacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of ﬁndings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges speciﬁc to modelling adaptation. These were reﬁned through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC aﬀects the role and impact of modelling. Speciﬁc challenges identiﬁed were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.
636 - Animal husbandry and breeding in general. Livestock rearing. Breeding of domestic animals
Is part of
Environmental Modelling & Software
Kipling, R.P., C.F.E. Topp, A. Bannink, D.J. Bartley, I. Blanco-Penedo, R. Cortignani, and A. del Prado et al. 2019. "To What Extent Is Climate Change Adaptation A Novel Challenge For Agricultural Modellers?". Environmental Modelling & Software 120: 104492. Elsevier BV. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492.
Grant agreement number
MINECO/Programa Estatal de I+D+I orientada a los retos de la Sociedad/APCIN2016-00050-00-00/ES/Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security/MACSUR II
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- ARTICLES CIENTÍFICS 
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