Modelling the spatial risk of malaria through probability distribution of Anopheles maculipennis s.l. and imported cases
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Author
Taheri, Shirin
González, Mikel Alexander
Ruiz-López, María José
Magallanes, Sergio
Delacour-Estrella, Sarah
Lucientes, Javier
Bueno-Marí, Rubén
Martínez-de la Puente, Josué
Bravo-Barriga, Daniel
Frontera, Eva
Polina, Alejandro
Martinez-Barciela, Yasmina
Pereira, José Manuel
Garrido, Josefina
Marzal, Alfonso
Ruiz-Arrondo, Ignacio
Oteo, José Antonio
Ferraguti, Martina
Gutíerrez-López, Rafael
Estrada, Rosa
Miranda, Miguel Ángel
Barceló, Carlos
Morchón, Rodrigo
Montalvo, Tomas
Gangoso, Laura
Goiri, Fátima
García-Pérez, Ana L.
Ruiz, Santiago
Fernandez-Martinez, Beatriz
Gómez-Barroso, Diana
Figuerola, Jordi
Publication date
2024-05-02ISSN
2222-1751
Abstract
Malaria remains one of the most important infectious diseases globally due to its high incidence and mortality rates. The
influx of infected cases from endemic to non-endemic malaria regions like Europe has resulted in a public health concern
over sporadic local outbreaks. This is facilitated by the continued presence of competent Anopheles vectors in nonendemic countries.
We modelled the potential distribution of the main malaria vector across Spain using the ensemble of eight
modelling techniques based on environmental parameters and the Anopheles maculipennis s.l. presence/absence data
collected from 2000 to 2020. We then combined this map with the number of imported malaria cases in each
municipality to detect the geographic hot spots with a higher risk of local malaria transmission.
The malaria vector occurred preferentially in irrigated lands characterized by warm climate conditions and moderate
annual precipitation. Some areas surrounding irrigated lands in northern Spain (e.g. Zaragoza, Logroño), mainland areas
(e.g. Madrid, Toledo) and in the South (e.g. Huelva), presented a significant likelihood of A. maculipennis s.l. occurrence,
with a large overlap with the presence of imported cases of malaria.
While the risk of malaria re-emergence in Spain is low, it is not evenly distributed throughout the country. The four
recorded local cases of mosquito-borne transmission occurred in areas with a high overlap of imported cases and
mosquito presence. Integrating mosquito distribution with human incidence cases provides an effective tool for the
quantification of large-scale geographic variation in transmission risk and pinpointing priority areas for targeted
surveillance and prevention.
Document Type
Article
Document version
Published version
Language
English
Subject (CDU)
619 - Veterinary science
Pages
11
Publisher
Taylor and Francis
Is part of
Emerging Microbes & Infections
Citation
Taheri, Shirin, María Rosa Luengo González, María José Ruiz‐López, Sergio Magallanes, Sarah Delacour, Javier Lucientes, Rubén Bueno‐Marí, et al. 2024. “Modeling the Spatial Risk of Malaria Through Probability Distribution of Anopheles Maculipennis s.l. And Imported Cases.” Emerging Microbes & Infections 13 (1): 2343911. doi:10.1080/22221751.2024.2343911
Grant agreement number
EC/LifeWatch ERIC/LifeWatch-2019-09-CSIC-4/EU/Sustainability for Mediterranean Hotspots in Andalusia Integrating LifeWatch ERIC/SUMHAL
ISCIII/Programa Estatal de I+D+I orientada a los retos de la sociedad/PLEC2021-007968/ES/Development of New Technologies to Track Emerging Infectious Threats in Wildlife and the Environment/NEXTHREAT
MICINN/Programa Estatal para desarrollar, atraer y retener talento/RYC2021-031613-I/ES/ /
MCIN/Programa Estatal de generación del conocimiento y fortalecimiento científico y tecnológico del sistema I+D+I y Programa Estatal de I+D+I orientada a los retos de la sociedad/PID2020-118921RJ-I00/ES/ /
FEDER/ / /EU/ /
Program
Sanitat Animal
This item appears in the following Collection(s)
- ARTICLES CIENTÍFICS [2838]
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/