A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France
Ver/Abrir
Autor/a
Casal, Jordi
Saegerman, Claude
Bertagnoli, Stéphane
Meyer, Gilles
Ganière, Jean Pierre
Caufour, Philippe
De Clercq, Kris
Jacquiet, Philippe
Hautefeuille, Claire
Etore, Florence
Napp, Sebastián
Fecha de publicación
2019-01-25ISSN
1932-6203
Resumen
A simple method to estimate the size of the vaccine bank needed to control an epidemic of an exotic infectious disease in case of introduction into a country is presented. The method was applied to the case of a Lumpy Skin disease (LSD) epidemic in France. The size of the stock of vaccines needed was calculated based on a series of simple equations that use some trigonometric functions and take into account the spread of the disease, the time required to obtain good vaccination coverage and the cattle density in the affected region. Assuming a 7-weeks period to vaccinate all the animals and a spread of the disease of 7.3 km/week, the vaccination of 740 716 cattle would be enough to control an epidemic of LSD in France in 90% of the simulations (608 196 cattle would cover 75% of the simulations). The results of this simple method were then validated using a dynamic simulation model, which served as reference for the calculation of the vaccine stock required. The differences between both models in different scenarios, related with the time needed to vaccinate the animals, ranged from 7% to 10.5% more vaccines using the simple method to cover 90% of the simulations, and from 9.0% to 13.8% for 75% of the simulations. The model is easy to use and may be adapted for the control of different diseases in different countries, just by using some simple formulas and few input data.
Tipo de documento
Artículo
Versión del documento
Versión publicada
Lengua
English
Materias (CDU)
619 - Veterinaria
Páginas
10
Publicado por
Public Library of Science
Publicado en
PLoS ONE
Citación
Casal, Jordi, Claude Saegerman, Stéphane Bertagnoli, Gilles Meyer, Jean Pierre Ganière, Philippe Caufour, and Kris De Clercq et al. 2019. "A Simple Method To Estimate The Number Of Doses To Include In A Bank Of Vaccines. The Case Of Lumpy Skin Disease In France". PLOS ONE 14 (1): e0210317. Public Library of Science (PLoS). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0210317.
Program
Sanitat Animal
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