Modeling the impact of surveillance activities combined with physical distancing interventions on COVID-19 epidemics at a local level
Visualitza/Obre
Data de publicació
2022-11-17ISSN
2468-0427
Resum
Physical distancing and contact tracing are two key components in controlling the COVID-
19 epidemics. Understanding their interaction at local level is important for policymakers.
We propose a flexible modeling framework to assess the effect of combining contact
tracing with different physical distancing strategies. Using scenario tree analyses, we
compute the probability of COVID-19 detection using passive surveillance, with and
without contact tracing, in metropolitan Barcelona. The estimates of detection probability
and the frequency of daily social contacts are fitted into an age-structured susceptible-
exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental model to simulate the epidemics consid-
ering different physical distancing scenarios over a period of 26 weeks. With the original
Wuhan strain, the probability of detecting an infected individual without implementing
physical distancing would have been 0.465, 0.515, 0.617, and 0.665 in designated age
groups (0e14, 15e49, 50e64, and >65), respectively. As the physical distancing measures
were reinforced and the disease circulation decreased, the interaction between the two
interventions resulted in a reduction of the detection probabilities; however, despite this
reduction, active contact tracing and isolation remained an effective supplement to
physical distancing. If we relied solely on passive surveillance for diagnosing COVID-19, the
model required a minimal 50% (95% credible interval, 39e69%) reduction of daily social
contacts to keep the infected population under 5%, as compared to the 36% (95% credible
interval, 22e56%) reduction with contact tracing systems. The simulation with the B.1.1.7
and B.1.167.2 strains shows similar results. Our simulations showed that a functioning
contact tracing program would reduce the need for physical distancing and mitigate the
COVID-19 epidemics.
Tipus de document
Article
Versió del document
Versió publicada
Llengua
English
Matèries (CDU)
619 - Veterinària
Pàgines
12
Publicat per
KeAi Communications
Publicat a
Infectious Disease Modelling
Citació
Chen, Guan-Jhou, John R.B. Palmer, Frederic Bartumeus, and Ana Alba-Casals. 2022. "Modeling The Impact Of Surveillance Activities Combined With Physical Distancing Interventions On COVID-19 Epidemics At A Local Level". Infectious Disease Modelling 7 (4): 811-822. doi:10.1016/j.idm.2022.11.001.
Número de l'acord de la subvenció
EC/H2020/874735/EU/Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory/VEO
EC/European Research Council/853271/EU/Human-Mosquito Interaction Project: Host-vector networks, mobility, and the socio-ecological context of mosquito-borne disease/H-MIP
Programa
Sanitat Animal
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